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The starters roughly cancel. Chris Sale (2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 144 IP) against Cristopher Sánchez (2.52, 1.19) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Atlanta Braves (83-57) score 4.66 and allow 3.82 runs a game; Philadelphia Phillies (79-61) score 4.51 and allow 4.25. In a neutral park (factor 1.01), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.2–3.8 average score, which makes Atlanta Braves a 52.4% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.4%, a fair price of -102.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +105 against our -102 fair, a +1.7-point edge and +3.4% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.0 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.8% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Atlanta Braves at +105 carries a 1.7-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -102 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Sandy Alcantara (3.46 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 189.2 IP) against Michael Wacha (3.32, 1.10) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Miami Marlins (71-69) score 4.37 and allow 4.24 runs a game; Kansas City Royals (62-78) score 4.28 and allow 4.91. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.6–4.4 average score, which makes Miami Marlins a 51.9% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.3%, a fair price of -101.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +105 against our -101 fair, a +1.5-point edge and +3.0% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.4 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.7% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Miami Marlins at +105 carries a 1.5-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -101 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The pick survives a starter disadvantage. Drew Anderson (3.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) outgrades Dean Kremer (5.60, 1.26) on the season line, so this edge is carried by the clubs' season-long scoring and their bullpens, not the first five innings. The engine credits the starter over ~5.5 innings and each team's real bullpen ERA over the other 3.5.

The clubs, the park, the count. Minnesota Twins (67-72) score 4.69 and allow 4.93 runs a game; Detroit Tigers (63-75) score 4.34 and allow 4.04. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.4–4.6 average score, with Minnesota Twins winning 51.4% of them, a fair price of -106.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -105 against our -106 fair, a +0.2-point edge and +0.3% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 0.8 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.1% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 6 flagged a cold road offense (detection only; no scoring tax is applied yet).

Bottom line: Minnesota Twins at -105 carries a 0.2-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -106 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Sean Burke brings a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 149 innings against Ronel Blanco at 7.71 (1.46 WHIP). A 4.4-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.15-vs-1.46 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (72-65) score 4.78 and allow 4.48 runs a game; Houston Astros (70-68) score 4.57 and allow 4.86. In a neutral park (factor 0.97), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.9–4.2 average score, which makes Chicago White Sox a 55.3% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 52.6%, a fair price of -111.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -102 against our -111 fair, a +2.2-point edge and +4.3% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 5.3 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.1% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at -102 carries a 2.2-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -111 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Will Dion (3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 34.1 IP) against Ryan Gusto (3.98, 1.33) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Washington Nationals (65-74) score 5.18 and allow 5.06 runs a game; Miami Marlins (69-68) score 4.34 and allow 4.23. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.5–4.8 average score, which makes Washington Nationals a 52.8% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.9%, a fair price of -104.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +102 against our -104 fair, a +1.4-point edge and +2.8% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.8 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.7% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Washington Nationals at +102 carries a 1.4-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -104 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Jordan Hicks brings a 3.83 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 40 innings against Zebby Matthews at 4.86 (1.31 WHIP). A 1.0-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.53-vs-1.31 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (72-63) score 4.82 and allow 4.47 runs a game; Minnesota Twins (64-72) score 4.57 and allow 5.01. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 5–4.4 average score, which makes Chicago White Sox a 54.8% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.4%, a fair price of -106.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +106 against our -106 fair, a +2.8-point edge and +5.8% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 6.9 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.4% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at +106 carries a 2.8-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -106 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Cade Cavalli (3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 148.2 IP) against Sandy Alcantara (3.38, 1.18) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Washington Nationals (64-73) score 5.2 and allow 5.07 runs a game; Miami Marlins (68-67) score 4.33 and allow 4.24. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.2–4.7 average score, which makes Washington Nationals a 53.8% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 52.1%, a fair price of -109.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -104 against our -109 fair, a +1.1-point edge and +2.1% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.4 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.6% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Washington Nationals at -104 carries a 1.1-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -109 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Read the post →

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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The starters roughly cancel. Anthony Kay (3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 127.1 IP) against Jacob deGrom (3.77, 1.13) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (68-63) score 4.73 and allow 4.47 runs a game; Texas Rangers (66-66) score 4.03 and allow 4.31. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.3–4.7 average score, which makes Chicago White Sox a 53.4% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.4%, a fair price of -106.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +102 against our -106 fair, a +1.9-point edge and +3.9% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.0 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.0% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at +102 carries a 1.9-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -106 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The pick survives a starter disadvantage. Kumar Rocker (4.46 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) outgrades José Urquidy (5.06, 1.50) on the season line, so this edge is carried by the clubs' season-long scoring and their bullpens, not the first five innings. The engine credits the starter over ~5.5 innings and each team's real bullpen ERA over the other 3.5.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (68-62) score 4.75 and allow 4.42 runs a game; Texas Rangers (65-66) score 3.98 and allow 4.33. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.8–5 average score, which makes Chicago White Sox a 59.2% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 57.3%, a fair price of -134.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -126 against our -134 fair, a +1.5-point edge and +2.7% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.8 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.8% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter; Rule 6 flagged a cold road offense (detection only; no scoring tax is applied yet).

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at -126 carries a 1.5-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -134 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Sean Newcomb brings a 2.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 70 innings against Nolan McLean at 3.34 (1.16 WHIP). A 0.9-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.10-vs-1.16 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (67-62) score 4.78 and allow 4.45 runs a game; New York Mets (59-71) score 4.19 and allow 4.49. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 4–4.6 average score, which makes Chicago White Sox a 55.2% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 52.8%, a fair price of -112.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -104 against our -112 fair, a +1.8-point edge and +3.5% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.8 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.9% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at -104 carries a 1.8-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -112 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The pick survives a starter disadvantage. Dylan Cease (2.42 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) outgrades Ryan Weathers (3.56, 1.19) on the season line, so this edge is carried by the clubs' season-long scoring and their bullpens, not the first five innings. The engine credits the starter over ~5.5 innings and each team's real bullpen ERA over the other 3.5.

The clubs, the park, the count. New York Yankees (73-55) score 4.44 and allow 3.69 runs a game; Toronto Blue Jays (63-67) score 3.95 and allow 4.35. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.9–4.1 average score, which makes New York Yankees a 52.4% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.2%, a fair price of -105.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -104 against our -105 fair, a +0.2-point edge and +0.4% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 2.4 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.1% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: New York Yankees at -104 carries a 0.2-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -105 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Troy Melton brings a 1.49 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 84.1 innings against Noah Cameron at 4.16 (1.22 WHIP). A 2.7-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 0.96-vs-1.22 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Detroit Tigers (61-66) score 4.54 and allow 3.9 runs a game; Kansas City Royals (55-74) score 4.19 and allow 4.97. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.8–4.1 average score, which makes Detroit Tigers a 56.4% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 54.3%, a fair price of -119.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -108 against our -119 fair, a +2.4-point edge and +4.5% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.2 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.2% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Detroit Tigers at -108 carries a 2.4-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -119 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Michael McGreevy brings a 3.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 132 innings against Brady Singer at 4.66 (1.44 WHIP). A 1.2-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.22-vs-1.44 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. St. Louis Cardinals (65-63) score 4.39 and allow 4.32 runs a game; Cincinnati Reds (61-66) score 4.05 and allow 4.74. In a neutral park (factor 1.04), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.8–4.3 average score, which makes St. Louis Cardinals a 54.1% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 52.4%, a fair price of -110.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -106 against our -110 fair, a +0.9-point edge and +1.8% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.4 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.5% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: St. Louis Cardinals at -106 carries a 0.9-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -110 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Cade Cavalli brings a 3.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 136.2 innings against Kumar Rocker at 4.50 (1.40 WHIP). A 1.1-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.24-vs-1.40 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Washington Nationals (60-67) score 5.28 and allow 5.17 runs a game; Texas Rangers (62-64) score 4.06 and allow 4.4. In a neutral park (factor 0.98), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.9–4.2 average score, which makes Washington Nationals a 55.8% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.2%, a fair price of -101.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +120 against our -101 fair, a +4.7-point edge and +10.4% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 11.2 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 2.2% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Washington Nationals at +120 carries a 4.7-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -101 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Kyle Harrison (2.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 93.1 IP) against Bryce Miller (3.39, 0.99) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Milwaukee Brewers (77-48) score 4.86 and allow 3.78 runs a game; Seattle Mariners (59-66) score 3.91 and allow 4.1. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.7–4.7 average score, which makes Milwaukee Brewers a 58.4% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 59.6%, a fair price of -148.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -147 against our -148 fair, a +0.1-point edge and +0.2% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 2.6 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.1% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Milwaukee Brewers at -147 carries a 0.1-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -148 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Carmen Mlodzinski (3.79 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 99.2 IP) against Framber Valdez (4.26, 1.39) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-65) score 5.02 and allow 4.79 runs a game; Detroit Tigers (60-64) score 4.56 and allow 3.89. In a neutral park (factor 0.97), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.3–4.6 average score, which makes Pittsburgh Pirates a 52.5% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.0%, a fair price of -104.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +100 against our -104 fair, a +1.0-point edge and +2.0% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.1 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.5% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Pittsburgh Pirates at +100 carries a 1.0-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -104 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Casey Mize (3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 96 IP) against Tanner Bibee (3.99, 1.13) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. San Diego Padres (66-58) score 4.27 and allow 4.29 runs a game; Cleveland Guardians (60-64) score 3.98 and allow 4.2. In a neutral park (factor 0.97), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.2–3.8 average score, which makes San Diego Padres a 53.5% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 52.3%, a fair price of -110.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -105 against our -110 fair, a +1.1-point edge and +2.2% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 2.4 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.6% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: San Diego Padres at -105 carries a 1.1-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -110 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Ryan Gusto (4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 49 IP) against Brady Singer (4.66, 1.43) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Miami Marlins (62-61) score 4.35 and allow 4.27 runs a game; Cincinnati Reds (59-62) score 4.11 and allow 4.74. In a neutral park (factor 1.04), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.9–4.5 average score, which makes Miami Marlins a 52.9% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.3%, a fair price of -106.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +100 against our -106 fair, a +1.4-point edge and +2.7% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.2 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.7% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Miami Marlins at +100 carries a 1.4-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -106 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Andrew Alvarez brings a 3.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 69.1 innings against Robert Stock at 10.13 (2.13 WHIP). A 6.4-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.40-vs-2.13 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Washington Nationals (60-63) score 5.38 and allow 5.2 runs a game; New York Mets (53-69) score 4.18 and allow 4.57. In a neutral park (factor 0.96), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.9–4.3 average score, which makes Washington Nationals a 55.3% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 51.5%, a fair price of -106.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +106 against our -106 fair, a +2.9-point edge and +6.1% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 7.5 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.4% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Washington Nationals at +106 carries a 2.9-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -106 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The pick survives a starter disadvantage. Parker Messick (2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) outgrades Keider Montero (3.38, 1.01) on the season line, so this edge is carried by the clubs' season-long scoring and their bullpens, not the first five innings. The engine credits the starter over ~5.5 innings and each team's real bullpen ERA over the other 3.5.

The clubs, the park, the count. Detroit Tigers (59-61) score 4.58 and allow 3.85 runs a game; Cleveland Guardians (59-62) score 3.99 and allow 4.21. In a neutral park (factor 0.97), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.8–4.2 average score, which makes Detroit Tigers a 53.2% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.9%, a fair price of -104.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +104 against our -104 fair, a +1.9-point edge and +3.8% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.7 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.9% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Detroit Tigers at +104 carries a 1.9-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -104 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The pick survives a starter disadvantage. Bryce Miller (3.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) outgrades Will Warren (4.18, 1.37) on the season line, so this edge is carried by the clubs' season-long scoring and their bullpens, not the first five innings. The engine credits the starter over ~5.5 innings and each team's real bullpen ERA over the other 3.5.

The clubs, the park, the count. New York Yankees (67-52) score 4.5 and allow 3.78 runs a game; Seattle Mariners (56-64) score 3.86 and allow 4.04. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.6–4.5 average score, which makes New York Yankees a 58.1% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 56.3%, a fair price of -129.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -124 against our -129 fair, a +1.0-point edge and +1.8% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.5 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.6% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 6 flagged a cold road offense (detection only; no scoring tax is applied yet).

Bottom line: New York Yankees at -124 carries a 1.0-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -129 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Kyle Harrison brings a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 88.2 innings against Walker Buehler at 5.07 (1.46 WHIP). A 2.2-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.04-vs-1.46 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Milwaukee Brewers (74-45) score 4.93 and allow 3.76 runs a game; San Diego Padres (63-57) score 4.22 and allow 4.3. In a run-suppressing park (factor 0.95), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.5–3.8 average score, which makes Milwaukee Brewers a 57.1% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 54.9%, a fair price of -122.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -116 against our -122 fair, a +1.2-point edge and +2.3% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 4.3 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.7% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Milwaukee Brewers at -116 carries a 1.2-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -122 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The starters roughly cancel. Reid Detmers (4.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 129 IP) against MacKenzie Gore (4.55, 1.24) is close to a push on season numbers, which hands the game to the team-level gap below.

The clubs, the park, the count. Los Angeles Angels (45-73) score 4.1 and allow 4.87 runs a game; Texas Rangers (59-59) score 4.14 and allow 4.42. In a neutral park (factor 1.00), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.1–4.4 average score, which makes Los Angeles Angels a 52.1% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 50.2%, a fair price of -101.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is +104 against our -101 fair, a +1.2-point edge and +2.5% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 3.7 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 0.6% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Los Angeles Angels at +104 carries a 1.2-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -101 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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The mound tilts this game. Brad Lord brings a 3.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 59 innings against Brady Singer at 4.67 (1.43 WHIP). A 0.9-run ERA gap — which the engine first stabilizes with FIP and innings pitched, then weights over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers — moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.20-vs-1.43 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Washington Nationals (58-61) score 5.34 and allow 5.19 runs a game; Cincinnati Reds (56-60) score 4.15 and allow 4.73. In a neutral park (factor 0.99), 10,000 simulations land on a 4.3–5.2 average score, which makes Washington Nationals a 56.7% team; blended with the de-vigged market that settles at a published 53.5%, a fair price of -115.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -104 against our -115 fair, a +2.5-point edge and +4.9% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 6.5 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 1.3% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Washington Nationals at -104 carries a 2.5-point model edge at 0u. If the line steams past our -115 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Read the post →

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

The mound tilts this game. Davis Martin brings a 3.31 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 106 innings against Spencer Arrighetti at 4.34 (1.31 WHIP). A 1.0-run ERA gap, weighted over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers, moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.27-vs-1.31 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Chicago White Sox (54-47) score 4.78 and allow 4.35 runs a game; Houston Astros (50-54) score 4.55 and allow 4.98. In a neutral park (factor 1.03), 10,000 simulations land on a 3.8–5.6 average score, with Chicago White Sox winning 64.1% of them, a fair price of -178.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -134 against our -178 fair, a +6.8-point edge and +11.9% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 9.0 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 4.0% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 1u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Chicago White Sox at -134 carries a 6.8-point model edge at 1u. If the line steams past our -178 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

The mound tilts this game. Ian Seymour brings a 4.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 67.2 innings against Shane Bieber at 5.70 (1.73 WHIP). A 0.9-run ERA gap, weighted over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers, moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.17-vs-1.73 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Tampa Bay Rays (59-42) score 4.53 and allow 4.22 runs a game; Toronto Blue Jays (46-56) score 3.94 and allow 4.56. In a neutral park (factor 1.00), 10,000 simulations land on a 5.4–3.9 average score, with Tampa Bay Rays winning 61.1% of them, a fair price of -157.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -110 against our -157 fair, a +8.7-point edge and +16.7% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 10.5 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 4.6% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 0.5u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Rule 4 cut the allocation over a limited-workload starter.

Bottom line: Tampa Bay Rays at -110 carries a 8.7-point model edge at 0.5u. If the line steams past our -157 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

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Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

The mound tilts this game. Emerson Hancock brings a 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 99.1 innings against Brady Singer at 4.56 (1.41 WHIP). A 1.4-run ERA gap, weighted over the ~5.5 innings a starter covers, moves real win probability before anyone swings. Baserunners are kindling: the 1.01-vs-1.41 WHIP spread decides whose innings stay quiet.

The clubs, the park, the count. Seattle Mariners (51-51) score 4.04 and allow 3.85 runs a game; Cincinnati Reds (46-54) score 4.18 and allow 4.83. In a run-suppressing park (factor 0.92), 10,000 simulations land on a 2.7–4.2 average score, with Seattle Mariners winning 65.1% of them, a fair price of -186.

The market price is the point. The consensus line is -155 against our -186 fair, a +4.3-point edge and +7.0% EV per unit at the listed price. Rule 8 checked the disagreement with the de-vigged market: 6.5 points, inside the 12-point cap: a disagreement, not a delusion. Quarter-Kelly would size this at 2.7% of bankroll; the tier framework governs it to 1u. The governor beats the gas pedal.

Breaker sheet: Every automated breaker passed at full size. The full check log is printed below, including the passes.

Bottom line: Seattle Mariners at -155 carries a 4.3-point model edge at 1u. If the line steams past our -186 fair before first pitch, the edge is gone; pass without regret. Passing is a position too.

See the full board and the running record →

Open Ledger Sports is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.