Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 51.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.1 pts · 0u
Jack Perkins (6.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Payton Tolle (3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–5.5; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +230 / -260 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -250 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 51.4% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 64.3% vs de-vigged market 70.4%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.312 by 0.040 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (63% air outs), away SP fly-ball (61% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, Bovada) · model 58.7% · edge +8.7 pts · divergence +9.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +230 / -260 | +184 / -220 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-119 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, Bovada) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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