Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-139, DraftKings) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.8 pts · 0u
Shane Baz (3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs Nathan Eovaldi (4.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.1; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +129 / -146 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -139 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.1% vs de-vigged market 57.6%: 10.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.281 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, MyBookie.ag) · model 52.5% · edge +3.7 pts · divergence +4.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +129 / -146 | +122 / -143 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-114 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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