Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (-114, DraftKings) · confidence 55.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.3 pts · 0u
Chase Petty (4.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Cade Cavalli (3.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5.3; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +104 / -118 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -114 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.7% vs de-vigged market 52.5%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Chase Petty under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.317 vs league 0.312 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.050. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +104 / -118 | -143 / +122 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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