Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-112, FanDuel) · confidence 50.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.8 pts · 0u
Drew Rasmussen (2.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs Logan Gilbert (3.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–3.6; sim total 7.5 against a 7 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +102 / -113 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.4% vs de-vigged market 51.7%: 3.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (-113, BetRivers) · model 56.7% · edge +3.7 pts · divergence +5.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +102 / -113 | +101 / -120 |
| Total | 7 | 7.5 (o+101 / u-121) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (-113, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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