Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-112, DraftKings) · confidence 52.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Trevor Rogers (4.20 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Dean Kremer (5.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.5; sim total 9.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -113 / +102 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.3% vs de-vigged market 51.7%: 1.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Dean Kremer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.305 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.073 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 57.5% · edge +7.0 pts · divergence +8.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -113 / +102 | -1 / -115 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-114 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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