Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-146, FanDuel) · confidence 59.7% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.4 pts · 0u
Sonny Gray (2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Jameson Taillon (5.96 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–3.7; sim total 8.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -150 / +135 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -146 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.9% vs de-vigged market 58.5%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.365 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.052, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-114, BetRivers) · model 55.5% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -150 / +135 | +127 / -150 |
| Total | 8.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-114, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.88u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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