Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 run line · confidence 40.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.9 pts · 0u
Gabriel Hughes (4.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs Michael Soroka (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.9; sim total 9.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +172 / -197 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to AZ -1.5 (covers 40.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 52.0%, de-vigged market says 64.3%: a 12.3-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Gabriel Hughes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-186, FanDuel) · model 40.7% · edge -6.9 pts · divergence -12.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +172 / -197 | +144 / -170 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-118 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-186, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.54u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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