Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-112, FanDuel) · confidence 52.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.9 pts · 0u
Logan Henderson (2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) vs Casey Mize (3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–3.9; sim total 7.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -116 / +104 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.6% vs de-vigged market 52.3%: 0.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Logan Henderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.002, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -116 / +104 | -138 / +119 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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