Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (+107, DraftKings) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.0 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (6.48 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) vs Hunter Dobbins (3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9.1 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -116 / +105 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +107 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 47.6%: 5.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Hunter Dobbins under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 93°F at first pitch: run environment x1.094 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (61% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -116 / +105 | -164 / +140 |
| Total | 9 | 8 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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