Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-146, FanDuel) · confidence 55.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.8 pts · 0u
Freddy Peralta (5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) vs Jacob Lopez (5.64 ERA, 1.63 WHIP).
Projected 5.1–4.7; sim total 9.8 against a 10 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -155 / +138 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -146 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 59.1%: 7.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (67% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10 (-106, BetRivers) · model 54.1% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +2.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -155 / +138 | -162 / +136 |
| Total | 10 | 10 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10 (-106, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date