Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.2 pts · 0u
MacKenzie Gore (4.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Reid Detmers (4.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.4; sim total 8.5 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -112 / +102 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.1% vs de-vigged market 48.4%: 3.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.294 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 79°F at first pitch: run environment x1.038. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.643) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-105, BetMGM) · model 53.4% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) · model 50.2% · edge +1.2 pts · divergence +3.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -112 / +102 | -144 / +122 |
| Total | 8 | 9.5 (o-102 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-105, BetMGM) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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