Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-130, FanDuel) · confidence 55.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Mitch Bratt (3.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Alec Gamboa (1.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.9; sim total 9.2 against a 9 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +120 / -132 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -130 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.3% vs de-vigged market 55.6%: 0.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mitch Bratt, Alec Gamboa under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.348 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.017. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-110, BetRivers) · model 57.9% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +6.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +120 / -132 | +143 / -170 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-106 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-110, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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