Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-176, DraftKings) · confidence 57.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.0 pts · 0u
Mason Barnett (6.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs Michael Wacha (3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–5.1; sim total 9.8 against a 9 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +160 / -178 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -176 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 62.5%: 9.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Barnett under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 89°F at first pitch: run environment x1.078 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs), away SP fly-ball (65% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 9 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +160 / -178 | +110 / -131 |
| Total | 9 | 10 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 9 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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