Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-122, FanDuel) · confidence 54.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Martín Pérez (2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Bailey Ober (4.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.3; sim total 9.2 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -127 / +112 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.6% vs de-vigged market 54.3%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.305 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.053. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -127 / +112 | -128 / +109 |
| Total | 9.5 | 8.5 (o-111 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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