Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-156, FanDuel) · confidence 56.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.3 pts · 0u
Luis Castillo (4.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Shota Imanaga (3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–5.1; sim total 9.8 against a 8 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +143 / -161 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.3% vs de-vigged market 60.0%: 6.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.347 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.032, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 71°F at first pitch: run environment x1.003. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (-110, BetRivers) · model 54.7% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +143 / -161 | +139 / -165 |
| Total | 8 | 10 (o-120 / u-1) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (-110, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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