Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 43.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -10.1 pts · 0u
Blake Snell (5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 6.2–5.8; sim total 12.1 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -261 / +225 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -250 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 43.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 52.5%, de-vigged market says 70.1%: a 17.7-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Blake Snell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.295 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 93°F at first pitch: run environment x1.091 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (55% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 11 (+100, BetUS) · model 54.9% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.7 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-250, FanDuel) · model 43.0% · edge -10.1 pts · divergence -17.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -261 / +225 | -173 / +144 |
| Total | 11 | 12 (o-103 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 11 (+100, BetUS) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-250, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.40u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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