San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-119, DraftKings) · confidence 53.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.4 pts · 0u
Walker Buehler (4.88 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) vs Nolan McLean (3.42 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.2; sim total 8.1 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -121 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -119 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 53.4%: 0.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.338 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.023. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 57.3% · edge +6.4 pts · divergence +7.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -121 | -113 / -105 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.96u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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