Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-123, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.9 pts · 0u
Ranger Suarez (3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs Sandy Alcantara (3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–3.8; sim total 7.9 against a 7 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -125 / +112 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 1.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.356 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.041, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (+105, Bovada) · model 54.0% · edge +5.2 pts · divergence +5.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -125 / +112 | -125 / +113 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-119 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (+105, Bovada) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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