Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-138, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 56.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.6 pts · 0u
Kevin Gausman (4.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Merrill Kelly (5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP).
Projected 5.5–4.8; sim total 10.3 against a 9 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline -140 / +125 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.0% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.356 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.041, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -140 / +125 | -109 / -105 |
| Total | 9 | 8.25 (o-111 / u-7) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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