Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-156, FanDuel) · confidence 56.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.6 pts · 0u
Parker Messick (2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs George Klassen (3.74 ERA, 1.62 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–3.9; sim total 8.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -160 / +142 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 59.8%: 7.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: George Klassen under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.314 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.049. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -160 / +142 | -135 / +118 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date