Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals -1.5 run line · confidence 45.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.0 pts · 0u
Ryan Feltner (5.97 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs Cade Cavalli (3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5.5; sim total 9.9 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +165 / -184 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to WSH -1.5 (covers 45.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.4% vs de-vigged market 63.2%: 5.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.054. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 59.3% · edge +6.9 pts · divergence +8.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +165 / -184 | +165 / -187 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (-110, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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