Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-105, DraftKings) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.9 pts · 0u
Braxton Ashcraft (3.68 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) vs Robbie Ray (3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.1; sim total 8.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 50.1%: 0.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.289 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.026, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.012. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+100, Bovada) · model 52.2% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -105 | -104 / -114 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+100, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date