Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 57.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.5 pts · 0u
Kumar Rocker (4.46 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs José Urquidy (5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–5; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +118 / -132 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.2% vs de-vigged market 55.4%: 3.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: José Urquidy under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.270 trails league 0.315 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 71°F at first pitch: run environment x1.003. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.560) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 53.0% · edge +2.5 pts · divergence +4.0 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Chicago White Sox ML (-126, FanDuel) · model 57.3% · edge +1.5 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +118 / -132 | -110 / -104 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-1 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Chicago White Sox ML (-126, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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