Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers -1.5 run line · confidence 39.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.8 pts · 0u
Gage Jump (4.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) vs Jacob deGrom (4.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.5; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +186 / -215 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -205 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to TEX -1.5 (covers 39.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 52.7%, de-vigged market says 66.1%: a 13.4-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 53.1% · edge +3.1 pts · divergence +4.7 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Texas Rangers ML (-205, FanDuel) · model 39.5% · edge -7.8 pts · divergence -13.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +186 / -215 | +158 / -190 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-106 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Texas Rangers ML (-205, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.49u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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