Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-127, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
Anthony Kay (4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Peter Lambert (3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.4; sim total 8.8 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +115 / -128 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -127 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.9% vs de-vigged market 54.7%: 4.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.317 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +115 / -128 | +117 / -129 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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