Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-116, DraftKings) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.1 pts · 0u
Jackson Jobe (3.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs Taj Bradley (3.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.6; sim total 8.6 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -121 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -116 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.8% vs de-vigged market 53.4%: 0.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Jobe under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.251 trails league 0.314 by 0.063 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.080 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (61% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -121 | -116 / +100 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-118 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date