Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (+102, DraftKings) · confidence 50.9% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.4 pts · 0u
Ryan Gusto (3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Will Dion (3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.8; sim total 9.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -110 / -101 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +102 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 49.0%: 3.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Will Dion under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.294 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.078 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.564) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-113, BetRivers) · model 57.6% · edge +4.6 pts · divergence +5.5 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Washington Nationals ML (+102, DraftKings) · model 50.9% · edge +1.4 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -110 / -101 | -112 / -101 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-113, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Washington Nationals ML (+102, DraftKings) — WIN (+1.02u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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