Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-106, DraftKings) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.2 pts · 0u
Kyle Harrison (2.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs Clay Holmes (2.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.7; sim total 9.1 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -102 / -109 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -106 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.8% vs de-vigged market 50.8%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.361 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.048, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.070 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.8% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +3.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -102 / -109 | +108 / -123 |
| Total | 9.5 | 10 (o-116 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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