New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-168, FanDuel) · confidence 57.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.0 pts · 0u
Robert Stock (7.40 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) vs Ian Seymour (4.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.7; sim total 8.9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +150 / -172 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -168 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 61.3%: 7.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Robert Stock under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, BetUS) · model 52.1% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +3.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +150 / -172 | +150 / -172 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, BetUS) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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