San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-138, FanDuel) · confidence 55.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.6 pts · 0u
Michael King (3.23 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Brady Singer (4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.3; sim total 9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -146 / +128 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.3% vs de-vigged market 57.5%: 4.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.293 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 95°F at first pitch: run environment x1.099. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-105, Caesars) · model 54.4% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +4.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -146 / +128 | -146 / +128 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-105, Caesars) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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