San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 41.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Anthony Molina (2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) vs Bryce Elder (3.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.6; sim total 8.7 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +169 / -193 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -182 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 41.3% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.9% vs de-vigged market 63.9%: 9.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Anthony Molina under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 94°F at first pitch: run environment x1.094. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-105, BetUS) · model 56.1% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +169 / -193 | +170 / -195 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-105, BetUS) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date