Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 run line · confidence 40.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.8 pts · 0u
Jack Perkins (6.42 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs Kade Anderson (4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.5; sim total 8.7 against a 7 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +180 / -215 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -203 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to SEA -1.5 (covers 40.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 52.7%, de-vigged market says 65.6%: a 13.0-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Kade Anderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Seattle Mariners ML (-203, BetOnline.ag) · model 40.1% · edge -7.8 pts · divergence -13.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +180 / -215 | +180 / -215 |
| Total | 7 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Seattle Mariners ML (-203, BetOnline.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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