Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-117, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Jake Bennett (3.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs Brandon Young (3.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.1; sim total 8.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -125 / +106 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -117 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 53.4%: 1.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.330 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-106, BetRivers) · model 56.3% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -125 / +106 | -119 / +102 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-106, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date