Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-152, BetUS) · confidence 55.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.8 pts · 0u
Luis Castillo (5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Hunter Brown (3.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +138 / -160 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.5% vs de-vigged market 59.4%: 7.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +138 / -160 | +137 / -157 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-108 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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