Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (+105, Caesars) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.5 pts · 0u
Sandy Alcantara (3.46 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Michael Wacha (3.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.4; sim total 9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -102 / -115 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 48.6%: 3.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.312 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 99°F at first pitch: run environment x1.116 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (56% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.757) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Miami Marlins ML (+105, Caesars) · model 50.3% · edge +1.5 pts · divergence +3.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -102 / -115 | +100 / -116 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-119 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Miami Marlins ML (+105, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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