Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-103, BetRivers) · confidence 51.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.2 pts · 0u
Logan Henderson (2.48 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) vs Kevin Gausman (4.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.7; sim total 9.4 against a 8 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -114 / -102 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -103 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.6% vs de-vigged market 51.3%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.356 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.038, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.038. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -114 / -102 | -123 / +107 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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