San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-160, Caesars) · confidence 57.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.8 pts · 0u
Blade Tidwell (4.54 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Lake Bachar (3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.7; sim total 8.9 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +141 / -166 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -160 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.5% vs de-vigged market 60.1%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Blade Tidwell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.334 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.052. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-110, FanDuel) · model 57.5% · edge +5.1 pts · divergence +6.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +141 / -166 | +146 / -170 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-115) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-110, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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