Pre-launch / invalidated selection test. This historical slate is excluded from the official football launch record. All original selections and evidence remain available. Reset disclosure and full pilot results.
New recommendations will not resume until a new strategy is validated. Cards below are historical records, not current betting instructions. Original selections and results remain visible, including losses.
We make no claim that these plays win. Two pre-registered studies, both published in full, found this market cannot be out-forecast at the moment we can act: a market-blind model lost to the de-vigged consensus in every season and market tested, and buying the best available price returned less than the vig it was paying. So this is not sold as an edge. It is sold as process and receipts — the whole slate reasoned through from market prices, one play we would actually act on, and every one of them graded here in public, win or lose. Football is staked at zero units.
Record reset disclosed: pre-launch test history. Official cohort starts September 11, 2026 under fp-v0.4; earlier boards retain their original rules.
8 covered · 1 no market · decision moment 2026-08-29T18:00:00Z
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | Jacksonville State Gamecocks |
| Historical captured price | +230 at betrivers |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 2 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 30.4% |
| Eligible books | 10 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 4.349 → 2.906 pts |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | New Mexico State Aggies |
| Historical captured price | +3500 at draftkings |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 4 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 2.7% |
| Eligible books | 5 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 1.984 → 1.788 pts |
All 6 other covered games, ranked by how tight their market was.
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | Virginia Cavaliers |
| Historical captured price | -177 at betrivers |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 3 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 62.4% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 3.975 → 2.961 pts |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | North Carolina Tar Heels |
| Historical captured price | +290 at fanduel |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 3 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 25.3% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 4.094 → 3.169 pts |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | North Carolina Tar Heels |
| Historical captured price | +290 at fanduel |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 3 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 25.3% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 4.094 → 3.169 pts |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | Sacramento State Hornets |
| Historical captured price | +290 at betrivers |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 3 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 25.3% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 4.094 → 3.169 pts |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
| Historical captured price | +165 at betrivers |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 5 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 36.9% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 4.215 → 3.253 pts |
| Offshore, as colour only | +165 at bovada |
no writeup (generation failed)
| Selection eligibility | Legacy pilot rule |
|---|---|
| Side | Memphis Tigers |
| Historical captured price | +160 at draftkings |
| Tier-1 books at or near it | 5 |
| De-vigged fair (this side) | 37.0% |
| Eligible books | 11 |
| Overround, consensus → best | 3.979 → 3.739 pts |
| Offshore, as colour only | +165 at lowvig |
Every game we could not cover, with the reason. Published in full at all times: a game we cannot cover is a game we have no play on, so this leaks nothing and it is the proof that nothing was quietly dropped.
| Game | Why |
|---|---|
| San Jose State Spartans @ USC Trojans | NO MARKET (1 eligible books, need 5) |