Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 49.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.4 pts · 0u
Gage Jump (4.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs Jake Bennett (2.90 ERA, 1.01 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–5.3; sim total 9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +220 / -255 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -240 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 49.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 62.6% vs de-vigged market 69.7%: 7.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 49.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.264 trails league 0.313 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (56% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+102, BetRivers) · model 53.8% · edge +4.3 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +220 / -255 | +230 / -266 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+102, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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