The slate for Saturday, August 8, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 8 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 8 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, August 7, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:05 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Chris Sale (2.08) vs Gerrit Cole (3.42) | 4.4–4.1 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Gage Jump (4.59) vs Jake Bennett (2.90) | 3.8–5.3 | 9 / 9 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Walbert Ureña (2.54) vs Sandy Alcantara (3.68) | 3.6–4.1 | 7.7 / 7.5 |
| 6:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Max Scherzer (7.92) vs Aaron Nola (5.55) | 4.4–4.9 | 9.3 / 9.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Robert Stock (1.80) vs Bubba Chandler (4.49) | 4.2–4.6 | 8.8 / 9 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Chase Burns (2.35) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.94) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Clay Holmes (2.39) vs Seth Lugo (4.41) | 5.4–4.2 | 9.5 / 9.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Taj Bradley (3.69) vs Robert Gasser (4.48) | 4.5–4.9 | 9.3 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Peter Lambert (3.06) vs Michael King (3.45) | 4.2–4 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Kyle Freeland (6.81) vs Matthew Liberatore (4.97) | 4.6–4.8 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Kyle Bradish (3.79) vs Jacob deGrom (3.96) | 3.9–4.2 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Gavin Williams (3.56) vs Anthony Kay (4.01) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.76) vs Brandon Pfaadt (3.66) | 5–4.5 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 9:50 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Griffin Jax (3.63) vs George Kirby (3.76) | 3.9–3.8 | 7.7 / 7 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for DET inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120, BetOnline.ag) (New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates. Robert Stock (1.80 ERA) against Bubba Chandler (4.49) is a 2.7-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox. The sim lands on 8.9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingAtlanta Braves @ New York Yankees — Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 58.1% · edge +8.1 ptsmarket-provingAthletics @ Boston Red Sox — Under 9 (+102, BetRivers) · model 53.8% · edge +4.3 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.2% · edge +5.5 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals — Over 8.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 56.6% · edge +4.2 ptsmarket-provingHouston Astros @ San Diego Padres — Under 8 (-114, BetRivers) · model 56.0% · edge +2.7 ptsmarket-provingColorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 8.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 59.4% · edge +7.0 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox — Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 56.2% · edge +7.4 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners — Under 7 (-110, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +2.6 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.