Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-134, FanDuel) · confidence 54.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.8 pts · 0u
Chris Sale (2.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs Gerrit Cole (3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.1; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -138 / +125 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -134 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 56.6%: 4.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.082 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (64% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 58.1% · edge +8.1 pts · divergence +9.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -138 / +125 | -145 / +128 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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