Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (-152, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 56.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
Walbert Ureña (2.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Sandy Alcantara (3.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–4.1; sim total 7.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +138 / -156 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 59.2%: 5.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.268 trails league 0.313 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +138 / -156 | +139 / -154 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+102 / u-123) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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