Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-132, FanDuel) · confidence 54.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.4 pts · 0u
Taj Bradley (3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Robert Gasser (4.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.9; sim total 9.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -136 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -132 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 56.1%: 3.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -136 | +199 / -235 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-101 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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