Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-158, FanDuel) · confidence 59.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.5 pts · 0u
Clay Holmes (2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Seth Lugo (4.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 5.4–4.2; sim total 9.5 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -162 / +143 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -158 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.4% vs de-vigged market 60.0%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Clay Holmes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.086. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -162 / +143 | -162 / +139 |
| Total | 9.5 | 10 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date