Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-124, FanDuel) · confidence 50.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.5 pts · 0u
Gavin Williams (3.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs Anthony Kay (4.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -127 / +115 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -124 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.2% vs de-vigged market 54.6%: 7.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.290 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 56.2% · edge +7.4 pts · divergence +8.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -127 / +115 | -105 / -112 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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