New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 54.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.5 pts · 0u
Robert Stock (1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) vs Bubba Chandler (4.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.6; sim total 8.8 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -122 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.6% vs de-vigged market 53.5%: 1.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Robert Stock under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.328 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.060 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.2% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +7.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -122 | +109 / -122 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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