Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-140, FanDuel) · confidence 51.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.9 pts · 0u
Chase Burns (2.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.7; sim total 8.9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -143 / +128 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 45.5% vs de-vigged market 57.3%: 11.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 95°F at first pitch: run environment x1.101 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 56.6% · edge +4.2 pts · divergence +5.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -143 / +128 | -142 / +129 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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