Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 47.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.2 pts · 0u
J.T. Ginn (3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs Erik Miller (2.57 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–5.1; sim total 8.9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +203 / -235 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -227 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 47.2% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.3% vs de-vigged market 68.0%: 7.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 47.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Erik Miller under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.279 trails league 0.315 by 0.036 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.084. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.3% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +203 / -235 | +203 / -230 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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