The slate for Sunday, August 9, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 6 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 6 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, August 8, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-1-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Brady Singer (4.67) vs Brad Lord (3.81) | 4.3–5.2 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | J.T. Ginn (3.51) vs Erik Miller (2.57) | 3.8–5.1 | 8.9 / 9.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Sean Manaea (4.33) vs Jared Jones (4.02) | 4.1–4.6 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Shane Bieber (5.11) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.36) | 4–4.7 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Grant Holmes (3.67) vs Cam Schlittler (2.26) | 4–4.6 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Grayson Rodriguez (7.24) vs Ryan Gusto (4.80) | 3.7–4.6 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Matthew Boyd (3.59) vs Randy Dobnak (1.16) | 5–4.3 | 9.3 / 10.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Joey Cantillo (3.87) vs Davis Martin (4.13) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Connor Prielipp (4.75) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.63) | 3.7–5 | 8.7 / 7 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Michael Lorenzen (6.94) vs Michael McGreevy (3.59) | 4.4–4.8 | 9.2 / 9 |
| 2:35 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Cade Povich (3.91) vs Kumar Rocker (4.08) | 4–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Troy Melton (1.58) vs Logan Webb (3.74) | 4.1–3.8 | 7.9 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Justin Wrobleski (3.31) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.71) | 4.8–4.6 | 9.4 / 9 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Ian Seymour (4.27) vs Emerson Hancock (3.33) | 3.9–3.9 | 7.8 / 7.5 |
| 8:20 PM ET | Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Washington Nationals ML (-104, FanDuel) — Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals, 12:15 PM ET. Edge +2.5 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.701. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals. Michael McGreevy (3.59 ERA) against Michael Lorenzen (6.94) is a 3.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers. The sim lands on 8.7 runs against a 7 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingAthletics @ Boston Red Sox — Under 9.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.3% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins — Under 8.5 (-110, BetMGM) · model 58.4% · edge +6.0 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals — Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.7% · edge +4.6 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 58.1% · edge +8.1 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 9 (-112, LowVig.ag) · model 57.7% · edge +4.9 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners — Under 7.5 (-110, BetRivers) · model 54.6% · edge +2.2 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.